收盘数据 2026-10-20（美东），每个交易日收盘后更新。判断依据为该状态下历史上的后续表现，不是对明天的预测。 · Closing data for 2026-10-20 (ET), updated after each session. Each call is based on what followed the same state in the past, not a forecast for tomorrow.
道琼斯 · Dow Jones
52,495.88+1.02%
中性 · Neutral常态上涨 · Normal uptrend
近 120 个交易日 · 虚线为年线（200 日线） · Last 120 sessions · dashed line is the 200-day MA
在年线（200 日线）上方 4.0% · 4.0% above the 200-day line RSI 59，距 60 日高点 -3.4% · RSI 59, -3.4% off the 60-day high
年线上方的常态，表现与历史平均一致。 · Above the 200-day line; in line with the long-run average.
距年线 · vs MA200
+4.0%
RSI14
59
20日涨跌 · 20D
+1.2%
距60日高 · vs 60D high
-3.4%
历史同类状态之后（四大指数 2000 年以来，15,864 个交易日） · After the same state (four indices since 2000, 15,864 sessions)
57%
5 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.1% · up after 5 days · avg +0.1%
64%
20 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.6% · up after 20 days · avg +0.6%
仅道琼斯自身：20 日上涨概率 63%（4393 天） · Dow Jones alone: up after 20 days 63% (4393 sessions)
标普500 · S&P 500
7,712.57+0.28%
中性 · Neutral常态上涨 · Normal uptrend
近 120 个交易日 · 虚线为年线（200 日线） · Last 120 sessions · dashed line is the 200-day MA
在年线（200 日线）上方 5.9% · 5.9% above the 200-day line RSI 49，距 60 日高点 -1.4% · RSI 49, -1.4% off the 60-day high
年线上方的常态，表现与历史平均一致。 · Above the 200-day line; in line with the long-run average.
距年线 · vs MA200
+5.9%
RSI14
49
20日涨跌 · 20D
-0.7%
距60日高 · vs 60D high
-1.4%
历史同类状态之后（四大指数 2000 年以来，15,864 个交易日） · After the same state (four indices since 2000, 15,864 sessions)
57%
5 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.1% · up after 5 days · avg +0.1%
64%
20 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.6% · up after 20 days · avg +0.6%
仅标普500自身：20 日上涨概率 67%（4375 天） · S&P 500 alone: up after 20 days 67% (4375 sessions)
纳斯达克 · Nasdaq Composite
26,424.82-0.02%
中性 · Neutral常态上涨 · Normal uptrend
近 120 个交易日 · 虚线为年线（200 日线） · Last 120 sessions · dashed line is the 200-day MA
在年线（200 日线）上方 5.9% · 5.9% above the 200-day line RSI 43，距 60 日高点 -4.3% · RSI 43, -4.3% off the 60-day high
年线上方的常态，表现与历史平均一致。 · Above the 200-day line; in line with the long-run average.
距年线 · vs MA200
+5.9%
RSI14
43
20日涨跌 · 20D
-3.0%
距60日高 · vs 60D high
-4.3%
历史同类状态之后（四大指数 2000 年以来，15,864 个交易日） · After the same state (four indices since 2000, 15,864 sessions)
57%
5 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.1% · up after 5 days · avg +0.1%
64%
20 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.6% · up after 20 days · avg +0.6%
仅纳斯达克自身：20 日上涨概率 65%（3953 天） · Nasdaq Composite alone: up after 20 days 65% (3953 sessions)
罗素2000 · Russell 2000以 IWM ETF 代替 · via the IWM ETF
275.78+1.66%
谨慎 · Cautious跌破年线 · Below 200-day
近 120 个交易日 · 虚线为年线（200 日线） · Last 120 sessions · dashed line is the 200-day MA
在年线（200 日线）下方 0.4% · 0.4% below the 200-day line 距 60 日高点 -9.4% · -9.4% off the 60-day high
2000–2012 年熊市中这种状态之后偏弱；2013 年以来与平常差不多。没有可靠的看空信号。 · Weaker than usual in the 2000-12 bear markets, about usual since 2013. No reliable bearish signal.
距年线 · vs MA200
-0.4%
RSI14
43
20日涨跌 · 20D
-4.0%
距60日高 · vs 60D high
-9.4%
历史同类状态之后（四大指数 2000 年以来，6,681 个交易日） · After the same state (four indices since 2000, 6,681 sessions)
54%
5 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.1% · up after 5 days · avg +0.1%
58%
20 日上涨概率 · 平均 +0.5% · up after 20 days · avg +0.5%
仅罗素2000自身：20 日上涨概率 64%（1475 天） · Russell 2000 alone: up after 20 days 64% (1475 sessions)
怎么判断：美股长期向上，所有交易日之后 20 日上涨的概率就有 63%，所以只有历史上明显好于这个平均的状态才给「偏多」：RSI 低于 30 为「超卖反弹」；在年线上方、RSI 低于 35 或距 60 日高点回调 5–12% 为「上升趋势中回调」。跌破年线为「谨慎」：2000–2012 年的熊市里之后偏弱，但 2013 年以来与平常差不多，我们没有找到在两段时间都可靠的看空状态。其余为「常态上涨」。罗素2000 用 IWM ETF 代替。历史窗口相互重叠，概率只代表倾向，不构成投资建议。 · How it works: US stocks rise over time; after any session the index was up 20 days later 63% of the time, so a state is called bullish only if it clearly beat that: RSI below 30 = Oversold; above the 200-day line with RSI below 35 or 5-12% off the 60-day high = Dip in an uptrend. Below the 200-day line = Cautious: weaker than usual in the 2000-12 bear markets but about usual since 2013; no state was reliably bearish in both periods. The rest = Normal uptrend. Russell 2000 via the IWM ETF. Windows overlap, so the odds show a tilt only. Not investment advice.
机构季度持仓 · 13F Holdings
13F 是基金每季度末的美股持仓，季度结束后 45 天内向 SEC 披露，不是实时数据。当前最新为 2026-06-30 季末持仓；下一批（2026-09-30 季末）将在 2026-11-14 前陆续披露。变动为与上一季度相比。 · 13F filings show each fund's US holdings at quarter end, filed with the SEC up to 45 days later; not live. Latest: quarter ended 2026-06-30; the next batch (2026-09-30) is due by 2026-11-14. Changes are versus the prior quarter.
Form 4：持股超过 10% 的大股东须在交易后 2 个工作日内申报，是最及时的公开数据。这里显示上面这些投资人最近 90 天的公开市场买卖。 · Form 4: owners of more than 10% must report trades within 2 business days, the most timely public data. Open-market buys and sells by the investors above in the last 90 days.
美国国会议员须按 STOCK Act 在交易后 45 天内申报本人及配偶的证券交易。金额只按区间披露；“配偶”表示交易记在配偶名下。这里显示最近 12 个月的申报。 · Members of Congress must report their own and their spouse's securities trades within 45 days under the STOCK Act. Amounts are disclosed as ranges; "Spouse" means the trade is in the spouse's name. Reports from the last 12 months.
佩洛西Nancy Pelosi
众议员 · 加州第11选区 · U.S. Representative · CA-11
最近申报Last filed 2026-10-02
2026-09-08
REOF XXX, LLC买入Buy配偶 · Spouse
Investment in LLC which is acquiring and managing a commercial office property at 225 Bush Street in San Francisco, CA.
行权 50 张看涨期权（5,000 股，1/14/25 买入），行权价 $150，到期 1/16/26Exercised 50 call options purchased 1/14/25 (5,000 shares) at a strike price of $150 with an expiration date of 1/16/26.
行权 50 张看涨期权（5,000 股，1/14/25 买入），行权价 $150，到期 1/16/26Exercised 50 call options purchased 1/14/25 (5,000 shares) at a strike price of $150 with an expiration date of 1/16/26.
行权 50 张看涨期权（5,000 股，1/14/25 买入），行权价 $80，到期 1/16/26Exercised 50 call options purchased 1/14/25 (5,000 shares) at a strike price of $80 with an expiration date of 1/16/26.
行权 50 张看涨期权（5,000 股，1/14/25 买入），行权价 $20，到期 1/16/26Exercised 50 call options purchased 1/14/25 (5,000 shares) at a strike price of $20 with an expiration date of 1/16/26.
行权 50 张看涨期权（5,000 股，1/14/25 买入），行权价 $50，到期 1/16/26Exercised 50 call options purchased 1/14/25 (5,000 shares) at a strike price of $50 with an expiration date of 1/16/26.
776 shares and cash in lieu received as a result of spinoff from Comcast Corporation. No shares of Comcast were surrendered as a result of the spinoff.
数据来源：SEC EDGAR 及美国众议院书记官处公开披露，每日同步（最近一次 2026-10-21 10:30）。仅供研究参考，不构成投资建议。 · Source: SEC EDGAR and U.S. House Clerk public disclosures, synced daily (last 2026-10-21 10:30). For research only, not investment advice.
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